Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Rest, Body Blows, Rushing Attempts and Defense

Ole Miss absolutely dominated Presbyterian this past weekend, and nothing less should have been expected.

There has been a picture circulating that shows one of the Blue Hose running backs holding his hand up to Robert Nkemdiche’s bicep in awe shortly after the game ended. I think that pretty much sums up the magnitude of the contest.

But, if you’re like me, beating mighty Presbyterian didn’t stop you from thinking about the two previous weekends. You have flashbacks of Leonard Fournette gashing the defensive line and Sammie Coates catching deep balls on third down. You keep asking yourself what happened to the nation’s best scoring defense (which is still #1 in that category).

There are some things to consider when evaluating exactly what happened. These aren’t excuses or lamentations about an unfair schedule, but they are just some observations.

Ole Miss and Kentucky are the only two SEC teams that didn’t have a BYE week between Sept. 27th and Nov. 8th. That’s 7 games in a row. Poor Kentucky will actually take that streak to 8 before they get their rest week. An argument could be made, though, that the Rebels’ bye week is coming before the two most important games of the season.

Also, you may have heard of Bruce Feldman’s ‘Body Blow’ theory. The basic premise is that teams are beat up after playing physical teams that run the ball. Therefore, their defense doesn’t play as well the next weekend, and they are more likely to lose. Last year’s example was Stanford, and this year’s example is Navy. You’ll note that Notre Dame played Navy before they got smacked by Arizona State this past weekend.

LSU has 59 more rushing attempts than any other team in the SEC right now. Here’s what has happened the week after SEC teams play the Tigers this season:


A small sample size could be a mere coincidence, but Feldman could be on to something. We’ll see if Mississippi State and Alabama offer more evidence this weekend.

What does this mean for the Rebels? Maybe a week of rest can help restore some of that defensive dominance. And maybe, if the theory holds, LSU can help Ole Miss score a few extra points against Arkansas on November 22nd.

By Tyler Slay (@slaytyler)