How do you pick games? Do you look at statistics? Compare previous wins and losses and common opponents (if there are any)? Do you pick all favorites, or do you make your predictions instinctively, listening to your heart instead of your head?
Obviously, I'm no expert. That was established in Week 1 when I finished dead last in the OMRebelNation Pick 'Em. But I did okay the last two weeks, comparatively speaking, and pulled Jake's Picks out of the cellar. This is a pivotal week for me. I want to harness the momentum from week's 2 and 3 and make a big move in my league. The pressure is on, and so I'm thinking about my picks, and also I'm giving some thought to how I pick. There must be some science to it. I don't know what that science is, but hey, maybe I'll stumble into it if I keep trying.
THURSDAY
Auburn (2-0, 1-0 SEC) at Kansas State (2-0)
Series: AU leads, 3-0
6:30 p.m. CT • ESPN
Manhattan, Kansas • Bill Snyder Stadium (50,000)
Sirius: 84 • XM: 84
My head and my heart tell me Auburn (-9) will dominate the Wildcats. I know that strange things happen on ESPN Thursday nights, but that's just noise. I'm not going to let it get in the way of this pick. If the Wildcats struggled to beat Iowa State (32-28), they won't know what to do with Nick Marshall. That's my head. My heart tells me that the defending SEC champ should dominate a good but not great Big 12 team. Back to my head now: Auburn's covered 13 straight games. War Eagle.
MY PICK: Auburn (-9).
SATURDAY
Troy (0-3) at Georgia (1-1, 0-1 SEC)
Series: UGA leads, 1-0
11 a.m. • SEC Network
Athens, Ga. • Sanford Stadium (92,746)
Sirius: 108 • XM: 190
After losing to South Carolina, I expect Georgia to play angry.
MY PICK: Georgia (-40.5)
Florida (2-0, 1-0 SEC) at Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
Series: UA leads, 23-14
2:30 p.m. CT • CBS
Last: UA, 38-10 (2011 at Gainesville)
Tuscaloosa, Ala. • Bryant-Denny Stadium (101,821)
Sirius: 91• XM: 91
A team that needed 3 OT's at home to beat Kentucky probably doesn't have a chance against Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
MY PICK: Alabama (-14)
Texas A&M (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at SMU (0-2)
Series: A&M leads, 43-29-7
2:30 p.m. CT • ESPN2/ABC
Dallas, Texas • Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000)
Sirius: 108 • XM: 190
Texas A&M didn't cover against Rice. That gives me some pause, but then again SMU lost to North Texas 43-6.
MY PICK: Aggies (-33.5)
Indiana (1-1) at Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
Series: IU leads, 6-3-2
3 p.m. CT • SEC Network
Columbia, Mo. • Memorial Stadium - Faurot Field (72,000)
Sirius: 135 • XM: 204
One of my readers called this game free money. I tend to agree. Bowling Green beat Indiana 45-42. Mizzou is playing good football, and it's at home.
MY PICK: Mizzou (-13.5)
Northern Illinois (3-0) at Arkansas (2-1, 1-1 SEC)
Series: ARK leads, 1-0
6 p.m. CT • ESPNU
Fayetteville, Ark. • Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium (72,000)
Sirius: 126• XM: 205
Northern Illinois is a good team. Its 3-0 record includes a win over Big 10 Northwestern and UNLV. Nonetheless I still expect Brett Bielema, who was positively giddy about the Hogs 400-yard rushing performance against Texas Tech last weekend, to run the ball 60 times for 600 yards.
MY PICK: Arkansas (-13.5)
Manhattan, Kansas • Bill Snyder Stadium (50,000)
Sirius: 84 • XM: 84
My head and my heart tell me Auburn (-9) will dominate the Wildcats. I know that strange things happen on ESPN Thursday nights, but that's just noise. I'm not going to let it get in the way of this pick. If the Wildcats struggled to beat Iowa State (32-28), they won't know what to do with Nick Marshall. That's my head. My heart tells me that the defending SEC champ should dominate a good but not great Big 12 team. Back to my head now: Auburn's covered 13 straight games. War Eagle.
MY PICK: Auburn (-9).
SATURDAY
Troy (0-3) at Georgia (1-1, 0-1 SEC)
Series: UGA leads, 1-0
11 a.m. • SEC Network
Athens, Ga. • Sanford Stadium (92,746)
Sirius: 108 • XM: 190
After losing to South Carolina, I expect Georgia to play angry.
MY PICK: Georgia (-40.5)
Florida (2-0, 1-0 SEC) at Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
Series: UA leads, 23-14
2:30 p.m. CT • CBS
Last: UA, 38-10 (2011 at Gainesville)
Tuscaloosa, Ala. • Bryant-Denny Stadium (101,821)
Sirius: 91• XM: 91
A team that needed 3 OT's at home to beat Kentucky probably doesn't have a chance against Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
MY PICK: Alabama (-14)
Texas A&M (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at SMU (0-2)
Series: A&M leads, 43-29-7
2:30 p.m. CT • ESPN2/ABC
Dallas, Texas • Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000)
Sirius: 108 • XM: 190
Texas A&M didn't cover against Rice. That gives me some pause, but then again SMU lost to North Texas 43-6.
MY PICK: Aggies (-33.5)
Indiana (1-1) at Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
Series: IU leads, 6-3-2
3 p.m. CT • SEC Network
Columbia, Mo. • Memorial Stadium - Faurot Field (72,000)
Sirius: 135 • XM: 204
One of my readers called this game free money. I tend to agree. Bowling Green beat Indiana 45-42. Mizzou is playing good football, and it's at home.
MY PICK: Mizzou (-13.5)
Northern Illinois (3-0) at Arkansas (2-1, 1-1 SEC)
Series: ARK leads, 1-0
6 p.m. CT • ESPNU
Fayetteville, Ark. • Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium (72,000)
Sirius: 126• XM: 205
Northern Illinois is a good team. Its 3-0 record includes a win over Big 10 Northwestern and UNLV. Nonetheless I still expect Brett Bielema, who was positively giddy about the Hogs 400-yard rushing performance against Texas Tech last weekend, to run the ball 60 times for 600 yards.
MY PICK: Arkansas (-13.5)
Mississippi State (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at LSU (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
Series: LSU leads, 71-33-3
6 p.m. CT • ESPN
Last: LSU, 59-26 (2013 at Starkville)
Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (102,321)
Sirius: 84 • XM: 84
Because of LSU's less than stellar offense Mississippi State is a trendy pick to get the upset in Baton Rouge. I even find myself wanting to pick the Bulldogs, but then I see that Les Miles hasn't lost to Mississippi State since he's been at LSU. The Bulldogs haven't beaten the Tigers in their last 14 tries. Since Dan Mullen took over Mississippi State has lost to LSU as follows:
2009: 30-26
2010: 29-7 (Baton Rouge)
2011: 19-6
2012: 37-17 (Baton Rouge)
2013: 59-26
Add to that the fact that LSU is 43-3 under Miles on Saturday nights in Death Valley. Two of the three losses were to No. 1 Florida in 2009 and No. 1 Alabama in 2012. If you're going to beat LSU at night in Tiger Stadium you pretty much have to be No. 1. The numbers stack up against the Bulldogs.
The Tigers will win, but I don't think LSU will cover.
MY PICK: Mississippi State (+9.5)
South Carolina (2-1, 1-1 SEC) at Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-1 SEC)
Series: SC leads, 19-4
6:30 p.m. CT • SEC Network
Last: SC, 35-25 (2013 at Columbia)
Nashville, Tenn. • Vanderbilt Stadium (40,350)
Sirius: 108 • XM: 190
Poor Vanderbilt. If I had one of those Vegas hotlines where I charged $50 to give you my lock of the week this would be the game I would give you. Vanderbilt is awful. Just awful. There's no way South Carolina doesn't cover. No. Way.
MY PICK: South Carolina (-21.5)
Series: LSU leads, 71-33-3
6 p.m. CT • ESPN
Last: LSU, 59-26 (2013 at Starkville)
Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (102,321)
Sirius: 84 • XM: 84
Because of LSU's less than stellar offense Mississippi State is a trendy pick to get the upset in Baton Rouge. I even find myself wanting to pick the Bulldogs, but then I see that Les Miles hasn't lost to Mississippi State since he's been at LSU. The Bulldogs haven't beaten the Tigers in their last 14 tries. Since Dan Mullen took over Mississippi State has lost to LSU as follows:
2009: 30-26
2010: 29-7 (Baton Rouge)
2011: 19-6
2012: 37-17 (Baton Rouge)
2013: 59-26
Add to that the fact that LSU is 43-3 under Miles on Saturday nights in Death Valley. Two of the three losses were to No. 1 Florida in 2009 and No. 1 Alabama in 2012. If you're going to beat LSU at night in Tiger Stadium you pretty much have to be No. 1. The numbers stack up against the Bulldogs.
The Tigers will win, but I don't think LSU will cover.
MY PICK: Mississippi State (+9.5)
South Carolina (2-1, 1-1 SEC) at Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-1 SEC)
Series: SC leads, 19-4
6:30 p.m. CT • SEC Network
Last: SC, 35-25 (2013 at Columbia)
Nashville, Tenn. • Vanderbilt Stadium (40,350)
Sirius: 108 • XM: 190
Poor Vanderbilt. If I had one of those Vegas hotlines where I charged $50 to give you my lock of the week this would be the game I would give you. Vanderbilt is awful. Just awful. There's no way South Carolina doesn't cover. No. Way.
MY PICK: South Carolina (-21.5)